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The Cautious Optimism

Below are 2 histograms for Italy and Spain respectively. Both give the hope that with strong quarantine measures the pick of new cases is reached in 3-4 weeks after the number of new confirmed cases is about 0.0002% of population (100 cases). The number of contaminated is in 10-100 times more (0.002-0.02%).



If we compare this with Chinese pattern we see the same. (Pick February, 12 is because change the method of reporting, the previous one underestimated the statistics and unverified cases were accumulated to five a pick when they will be included in more valid statistics; the real graphic is something like red line.)


We see again about 3 weeks from beginning restricted measures (quarantine) to the maximum for the licked province with about 60,000,000 population.


What may be expected in Cyprus with its near 1 million population? The maximum is about 100 new cases per day in the first half of April.

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